Determinants of discretionary fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper explores economic, political and institutional determinants of discretionary fiscal policy in 11 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries from 2000 to 2013 and compares discretionary fiscal reactions before and during the global economic crisis. We find that fiscal policy was procyclical to the output gap both before and during the crisis, while no fiscal reaction to the absorption gap was captured. Our results also indicate a negative relationship between the level of public debt and deficits over the entire period and the pre-crisis period, suggesting that rising public debt represented a brake on future deficits. We also find that election cycles affect the fiscal deficit, but only during the pre-crisis period, while no evidence of a relationship between fiscal policy and government fragmentation was captured. We find some evidence that in the pre-crisis period the CEE countries with a fixed exchange rate regime ran lower deficits than those with a floating regime, whereas during the crisis no impact of the exchange rate regime on the fiscal deficit was found. There is also some evidence that an arrangement with the IMF was associated with lower deficits for the entire sample period. However, no impact of EU accession on the fiscal stance was identified.     

财政压力、技术创新与绿色全要素生产率

经济社会转型期典型的中国式"压力型"财政，对地方创新活动和绿色可持续发展具有重要影响。运用2004~2017年中国256个地级市面板数据，实证考察了财政压力对绿色全要素生产率的影响以及传导机制。基准检验结果显示，财政压力显著抑制了绿色全要素生产率的提升，技术创新对绿色全要素生产率具有显著的促进作用；中介效应检验发现，财政压力通过抑制技术创新进而阻碍绿色全要素生产率的提升，即验证了财政压力→技术创新→绿色全要素生产率的传导机制；进一步门槛效应检验表明，技术创新对绿色全要素生产率的影响存在基于财政压力的双门槛效应，在财政压力的不同门槛值区间，技术创新对绿色全要素生产率的促进效应呈现出明显的阶梯性降低趋势。未来需综合完善中国式"压力型"财政激励制度，合理控制财政压力的区间范围，助力技术创新以提升城市绿色全要素生产率。     

How Should Slovenia Design Fiscal Policies in the Government Debt Crisis?

We investigate how fiscal policies should be designed in Slovenia during the next few years. Using the SLOPOL model, an econometric model of the Slovenian economy, we analyze the effects of different fiscal policies using simulations and determine optimal fiscal policies for Slovenia. We show that the optimal design of fiscal policies is rather close to the austerity course as detailed in the Slovenian Stability Program, revealing the small scope of possible alternative fiscal stabilization policies available due to the relatively low effectiveness of the fiscal instruments with respect to their influence on the business cycle in the Slovenian economy.     

发达国家住房福利政策的演变及启示——我国公租房领域供给侧结构性改革探析

我国公租房领域存在投资主体单一、政府财政压力大、市场参与度不够、配置低效、供需失衡及错配、贫富分区程度加大等问题，需通过推进供给侧结构性改革来予以解决。发达国家住房福利政策的演变表明，住房政策应与住房市场供需状况相适应，政府所扮演的角色须从“公共住房的直接供给者”走向“市场化供给的环境营造者”，即从“补砖头”到“补人头”是住房福利政策演进的必然趋势。我国公租房领域供给侧结构性改革应与住房供求情况相匹配。一方面，要转变政府职能，从政府实物配给逐步过渡到市场化供给；另一方面，要积极打造健康的住宅租赁投资市场以促进公租房供给市场化，并通过开发配建和货币化补贴等措施促成公租房“隐形化”混合居住模式。     

Sustainability Strategy and Eco‐Innovation: A Moderation Model

This study develops a moderation model to examine the role of a proactive environmental strategy on eco‐innovation. Drawing upon the perspectives of contingency theory, this study argues that the impacts of sustainability strategy on eco‐innovation depend on market demand, innovation intensity and government subsidy. The sample used to test the hypotheses is obtained from the Community Innovation Survey in Taiwan. A total of 2955 manufacturing firms are included in the final sample. A logit moderating regression is adopted to analyze the models. The results reveal that market demand and government subsidy positively moderate the relationship between environmental strategy and eco‐innovation. Specifically, firms are more likely to adopt a proactive environmental strategy to improve eco‐innovation under high levels of market demand and government subsidy. Furthermore, the results indicate that innovation intensity affects the effect of environmental strategy on eco‐innovation, but the direction of the influence varies with different categories of eco‐innovation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

HOW DO FISCAL CONSOLIDATION AND FISCAL STIMULI IMPACT ON THE SYNCHRONIZATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES?

Using quarterly data for a panel of advanced economies, we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked. We also find: (i) some evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles. Global factors, such as a rise in global risk aversion and uncertainty and a reversal of nonstandard expansionary monetary policy, can also reduce the degree of co‐movement of business cycles across countries. From a policy perspective, our work shows that an inflation targeting regime coupled with simultaneous fiscal consolidations can lead to more business cycle synchronization.     

On Keynes on inflation and unemployment

Keynes tends to be represented as someone who thought that alleviating unemployment was more important than any other consideration. Interestingly it seems that this was not always the case; he did not recommend employment creation under all conditions of excess labour supply. The great inflation of World War I and its aftermath left an indelible impression on him, and this mitigated his position on the importance of high levels of employment. In 1920 he recommended that inflation in the UK be controlled even if some unemployment would result, and there is at least some hint in his work that the relative importance to him of inflation and unemployment did not vary much over the remainder of his life.     

财政赤字规模应把握社会承受力限度

平衡财政赤字有举债和银行透支两个途径，二者可兼用。举债要视当期财政收入状况为前提，银行透支超越社会承受力一定限度将致发通胀。因此，必须关注财政赤字规模的社会承受力。从全国看，财政赤字规模---一定限量银行透支应以一定限量社会闲置货币资金的存在---社会承受力为依托。财政赤字宜用积极手段平衡。     

Direct Democracy and Local Public Finances under Cooperative Federalism

In this paper, we exploit the introduction of the right of local initiatives in the German state of Bavaria in 1995 in order to study the fiscal effects of direct democracy. Our identification strategy combines difference‐in‐differences and regression discontinuity methods: we compare municipal expenditure and revenue between pre‐ and post‐reform periods at population thresholds where the signatures needed to launch initiatives and minimum quorum requirements decrease discontinuously (difference‐in‐discontinuities design). The results suggest that stronger direct democratic institutions lead to an expansion of local government size.     

金融风险社会化的最后防线及我国的现实选择

金融风险社会化是金融风险从金融系统溢出，蔓延至实体经济、国家财政甚至社会公众的过程，这种风险扩散后患无穷。通过对历次金融危机的梳理，总结金融风险社会化的一般路径，厘清国家财政必须承担起金融风险社会化最后防线的责任，并参考国际经验和我国国情，提出防范金融风险社会化的政策建议。